Attack on a UK ally or partner outside NATO or a mutual security agreement requiring international assistance
| Impact | 5 |
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| 2 |
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| ID | 62 |
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| Risk theme | Conflict and instability |
Impact & Likelihood
| 5 | Catastrophic |
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| 4 | Significant |
| 3 | Moderate |
| 2 | Limited |
| 1 | Minor |
| 5 | >25% |
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| 4 | 5-25% |
| 3 | 1-5% |
| 2 | 0.2-1% |
| 1 | <0.2% |
Scenario
The reasonable worst-case scenario for this risk involves an adversary state with a large, advanced military conducting a major air and land assault on a non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) security partner of the UK. The partner state suffers mass military and civilian casualties and a refugee crisis develops. Although the scenario is not UK based, there are likely to be British Nationals involved and humanitarian assistance will be required.
Response capability requirements
To contain aggression and deter further aggression from an adversary state, military, diplomatic and economic (sanctions) capabilities will be needed.
Recovery
This event would result in impacts lasting several years. Economically, the disruption to global markets (depending on the location) could be impacted by disruption of supply chains, reduction or prevention of fuels (gas and oil) and global economic instability.