Conflict and instability

The risk IDs on the matrix below are risks which sit under the theme 'conflict and instability'. More information about the risks can be found below.

Impact	5
	4			Deliberate disruption of UK space systems and space-based services 61	Nuclear miscalculation not involving the UK 63
	3					Attack on a UK ally or partner outside NATO or a mutual security agreement requiring international assistance 62
	2
	1
		1	2	3	4	5
	Likelihood

Impact & Likelihood

Impact key

5	Catastrophic
4	Significant
3	Moderate
2	Limited
1	Minor

Likelihood key

5	>25%
4	5-25%
3	1-5%
2	0.2-1%
1	<0.2%

Risk scenarios

ID	Title	Publishing date
61	Deliberate disruption of UK space systems and space-based services	July 2023
62	Attack on a UK ally or partner outside NATO or a mutual security agreement requiring international assistance	July 2023
63	Nuclear miscalculation not involving the UK	July 2023
64	Attack against a NATO ally or UK deployed forces which meets the Article 5 threshold	July 2023
65	Conventional attack on the UK mainland or overseas territories*	July 2023