Disruption to global oil trade routes
| Impact | 5 |
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| 4 |
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| 3 |
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| 2 |
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| 1 |
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5 |
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| Likelihood | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ID | 12 |
|---|---|
| Risk theme | Geographic and diplomatic |
Impact & Likelihood
| 5 | Catastrophic |
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| 4 | Significant |
| 3 | Moderate |
| 2 | Limited |
| 1 | Minor |
| 5 | >25% |
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| 4 | 5-25% |
| 3 | 1-5% |
| 2 | 0.2-1% |
| 1 | <0.2% |
Background
Oil is a strategic resource and its free flow is critical to world commerce and global economic prosperity. Due to the global nature of the international oil trade, disruptions to oil trade routes can lead to regional and even global economic crises as a result of significant impacts on energy prices, production, and wider trade.
Variations
Such a scenario is dependent on a number of variables.
Response capability requirements
If a physical disruption to global oil markets did occur, the UK holds emergency oil stocks that can be released to the market as part of a collective action by member countries of the International Energy Agency. If the issue was severe, prolonged and having national impacts, there are emergency powers within the Energy Act 1976 to exert more power over the production and supply of fuels, managing demand during a genuine supply shortage.
Recovery
The UK would likely be able to meet its demand for oil and petroleum products at the market price in a short amount of time, possibly instantly, assuming that markets continue to function or can be re-established.