International terrorist attack
| Impact | 5 |
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| 3 |
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| 2 |
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| 1 |
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5 |
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| ID | 1 |
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| Risk theme | Terrorism |
Impact & Likelihood
| 5 | Catastrophic |
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| 4 | Significant |
| 3 | Moderate |
| 2 | Limited |
| 1 | Minor |
| 5 | >25% |
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| 4 | 5-25% |
| 3 | 1-5% |
| 2 | 0.2-1% |
| 1 | <0.2% |
Background
There have been a number of terrorist attacks occurring overseas that have involved British Nationals. One such event was the incident in Tunisia in 2015, in which 30 of the victims were British.
Scenario
The reasonable worst-case scenario of this risk considers a large-scale terrorist attack occurring overseas, involving a significant number of British Nationals. There would be casualties and fatalities, which would include a diverse range of tourist nationalities.
Key assumptions
This scenario assumes that a non-state actor, likely a known terrorist group, is behind an attack.
Response capability requirements
Resilient communications systems, humanitarian assistance, victim support and UK sovereign military capability might all be required to deal with an international terrorist attack. Response and recovery would involve counterterrorism programming, security sector development assistance and access to UK support services for affected British nationals.
Recovery
This event is unlikely to directly impact UK infrastructure but there would be an impact on the tourism industry and bilateral relations. Domestic health service support for returning casualties would be required including mental health and medical support for those sustaining long- term injuries.