Terrorism

The risk IDs on the matrix below are risks which sit under the theme 'terrorism'. More information about the risks can be found below.

Impact	5			Larger scale CBRN attacks 9
	4				Combined risk - Conventional attacks on infrastructure 10
	3				Combined risk - Terrorist attacks on transport 4 Medium scale CBRN attacks 8 Combined risk - Cyber attacks on infrastructure 11	Combined risk - Terrorist attacks in public venues and spaces 3
	2		Strategic hostage taking 5		Smaller scale CBRN attacks 7	Northern Ireland related terrorism 2 Assassination of a high profile public figure 6
	1					International terrorist attack 1
		1	2	3	4	5
	Likelihood

Impact & Likelihood

Impact key

5	Catastrophic
4	Significant
3	Moderate
2	Limited
1	Minor

Likelihood key

5	>25%
4	5-25%
3	1-5%
2	0.2-1%
1	<0.2%

Risk scenarios

ID	Title	Publishing date
1	International terrorist attack	July 2023
2	Northern Ireland related terrorism	July 2023
3	Terrorist attacks in venues and public spaces - explosive devices	July 2023
3	Terrorist attacks in venues and public spaces - marauding attacks	July 2023
4	Malicious aviation incident	July 2023
4	Malicious maritime incident	July 2023
4	Malicious rail incident	July 2023
5	Strategic hostage taking	July 2023
6	Assassination of a high profile public figure	July 2023
7	Smaller scale CBRN attacks	July 2023
8	Medium scale CBRN attacks	July 2023
9	Larger scale CBRN attacks	July 2023
10	Attack on government	July 2023
10	Conventional attack - civil nuclear	July 2023
10	Conventional attack - electricity infrastructure	July 2023
10	Conventional attack - fuel supply infrastructure	July 2023
10	Conventional attack - gas infrastructure	July 2023
10	Malicious attack on chemicals infrastructure	July 2023
11	Cyber attack - civil nuclear	July 2023
11	Cyber attack - electricity infrastructure	July 2023
11	Cyber attack - fuel supply infrastructure	July 2023
11	Cyber attack - gas infrastructure	July 2023