Northern Ireland related terrorism

Impact 5
upper likelihood error bar
upper risk error bar
risk indicator lower likelihood error bar
lower impact error bar
ID 2
Risk theme Terrorism
Impact & Likelihood
Impact key
5 Catastrophic
4 Significant
3 Moderate
2 Limited
1 Minor
Likelihood key
5 >25%
4 5-25%
3 1-5%
2 0.2-1%
1 <0.2%


The current threat level for Northern Ireland related terrorism in Northern Ireland is severe, meaning an attack is highly likely. Since the signing of the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement there has been a transformative change in Northern Ireland where peace has brought stability and opportunities, enabling it to develop into the vibrant place it is today. However, there are a small number of people who continue to try to destabilise the political settlement through acts of terrorism and paramilitarism. Their activity causes harm to individuals and communities across Northern Ireland.


The reasonable worst-case scenario for this risk is a targeted terrorist attack in a public area in Northern Ireland. The intended target would be a site viewed by dissident republicans as symbolic of the British state. The attack could also pose a risk to members of the public depending on where it took place. There could be fatalities and casualties, damage to nearby infrastructure and disruption to transport.

Response capability requirements

Immediate assistance will be required from the Police Service of Northern Ireland and potentially the other emergency services depending on the nature and impact of the attack.


Support will be needed for the victim(s) of any attack, those injured and, where necessary, their families. Consideration should also be given to what support the local community will need following the attack. Work may be required to repair any damaged infrastructure.