Risk assessments

The National Risk Register matrix below presents the impact and likelihood of a plausible worst-case scenario manifestation of each risk.

Each number on the matrix corresponds to a risk ID with more information about each risk detailed below. Likelihood is presented as the percentage chance of the reasonable worst-case scenario occurring at least once in the assessment timescale, and impact is assessed across seven broad categories. More information about how risk impact and likelihood are assessed can be found on the 'Risk methodology' page.

Impact 5
4
3
Drought 52
Storms 48
2
1
1
2
3
4
5
Likelihood
Impact & Likelihood
Impact key
5 Catastrophic
4 Significant
3 Moderate
2 Limited
1 Minor
Likelihood key
5 >25%
4 5-25%
3 1-5%
2 0.2-1%
1 <0.2%

Risk scenarios

ID Title Risk Themes Publishing date
41 Major fire Accidents and system failures July 2023
42 Wildfire Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
43 Volcanic eruption  Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
44 Earthquake Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
45 Humanitarian crisis overseas - natural hazard event Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
46 Disaster response in the Overseas Territories Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
47 Severe space weather Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
48 Storms Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
49 High temperatures and heatwaves  Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
50 Low temperatures and snow Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
51A Coastal flooding Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
51B Fluvial flooding Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
51C Surface water flooding Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
52 Drought Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
53 Poor air quality Natural and environmental hazards July 2023
54 Pandemic Human, animal and plant health July 2023
55 Outbreak of an emerging infectious disease Human, animal and plant health July 2023
56C Animal disease - major outbreak of African horse sickness Human, animal and plant health July 2023
56D Animal disease - major outbreak of African swine fever Human, animal and plant health July 2023
56A Animal disease - major outbreak of foot and mouth disease Human, animal and plant health July 2023